China's Lithium Strategy Extends Across
A report warns that China's expanding control over Latin America's lithium sector, from mining to regulation, is creating strategic dependence and eroding
Chinese companies are expanding their influence across Latin America's entire lithium value chain, transforming a commercial enterprise into a source of geopolitical leverage. Human Rights, and the Environment, this model risks relegating producer nations to mere raw material suppliers.
Evan Ellis, a research professor at the U.S. Army War College Institute for Strategic Studies, stated the Chinese state has a strategic interest in ensuring its companies have the materials and technology needed for industrial development. Analysis from Wood Mackenzie projects Chinese companies will control 39 percent of global lithium production by 2030.
Beijing's Strategic Framework
China has reinforced state oversight of strategic minerals through new regulations that took effect on June 15, 2026. These rules govern the exploration, extraction, processing, and management of critical resources, complementing existing export controls and national security measures.
Ellis believes this framework has significant geopolitical implications. He said the Chinese state uses its mineral access and processing capacity as a tool of leverage, employing that dominance as a strategic weapon in critical sectors.
Modified Regulations Facilitate Access
China's influence grows not only in areas with weak regulations but also where legal frameworks have been altered to permit its involvement. Political analyst María Isabel Puerta told Diálogo that China makes inroads where frameworks are modified precisely to legalize its participation.
Argentina exemplifies this trend. In May 2026, its government approved incentives under the Large Investment Incentive Regime (RIGI) for expanding the Cauchari-Olaroz lithium project. The project is a joint venture involving China's Ganfeng Lithium Group, Lithium Argentina, and Jujuy Energía y Minería Sociedad del Estado (JEMSE).
Puerta argues that viewing Chinese investment as less risky is a strategic mistake, noting its presence has increased in countries like Brazil and in Central America, not just in nations aligned with Beijing such as Nicaragua.
Opacity and Criminal Links
A major concern accompanying Beijing's mining sector presence is limited transparency. Contracts and agreements with Chinese companies often contain confidentiality clauses that restrict public oversight and weaken accountability. This opacity can enable corruption and criminal activity.
An investigation by OjoPúblico found Peruvian authorities are probing representatives of eight companies allegedly linked to a criminal network. The network is accused of illegally extracting, stealing, and exporting mining tailings containing gold, copper, and silver to China using fraudulent permits in an operation valued at nearly $12 million.
The cumulative effect is a gradual erosion of national sovereignty across the region. Countries risk losing control over strategic resources, limiting industrial development opportunities while increasing exposure to external geopolitical pressure. This long-term strategy combines investment, legislation, commercial influence, and limited transparency to strengthen China's position in critical mineral supply chains.
