US Air Force accelerates new drone after Reaper losses

The US Air Force is accelerating plans to replace its MQ-9A Reaper drone following what it calls "concerning" losses in recent combat operations against Iran. Lieutenant General Christopher Niemi, the Air Force's chief modernization officer, stated the discussion on a successor was expedited due to these operational losses, which are depleting the fleet.

At least 45 Reapers have been lost since the launch of Operation Epic Fury in February, according to an August report by the Washington Post. This represents a quarter of the Pentagon's inventory. The depletion has left few short-term options to backfill the losses of the drone, which officials say can cost up to $50 million each depending on its payload.

In response, the Pentagon initiated a new program in July named the Mass Modular Aircraft (MMA). The Defense Innovation Unit (DIU) posted a solicitation with targets including a one-way range of 8,000 nautical miles, high modularity, and a price point that permits the Defense Department to tolerate losses. The initial goal was to have 20 mission-ready drones by fiscal year 2031.

However, officials now say they have been instructed to move faster. Major General Joseph Kunkel, DIU's military deputy, stated the unit intends to get to a prototype within a year and have the drone fielded at scale within three years. Lieutenant General Niemi said the Air Force will likely field "at least 180" of the MMA drones.

Cost and Design Targets

Officials have outlined ambitious cost targets for the new unmanned systems. The Air Force aims to get its Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) drones to $20 million each. For the MMA drones, the goal is a cost "closer to half of that," or around $10 million, according to Niemi. An Air Force spokesperson clarified this estimate covers only the air vehicle cost, not full missionization.

Niemi emphasized that driving down cost requires design compromises, moving away from the Reaper's approach. "What makes the MQ-9 special has nothing to do with the aircraft itself..." he said. He described the envisioned MMA as an aircraft with a long-aspect wing, probably turboprop-powered, capable of flying very long distances and carrying a heavy weight, likely in the "4,000 miles-type class."

Industry Competition and Approach

The MMA program will build competition by keeping multiple companies involved, similar to the CCA program where Anduril and General Atomics were selected for the first round. General Atomics is competing with a new design called Wildfire. Company spokesman C. Mark Brinkley stated Wildfire "addresses all of the concerns posed by the MMA solicitation" and can be delivered years earlier while maintaining high quality.

Brinkley defended the Reaper's capabilities in a statement to Breaking Defense, citing its "unique combination of endurance, payload, range, sensors, weapons, connectivity, adaptability and reliability." He added that General Atomics has worked with the Air Force to hit cost targets for decades.

Program Structure and Automation Goals

Lieutenant General Luke Cropsey, the Air Force's military deputy for acquisitions, said the MMA effort will mirror the CCA program in many ways. This includes developing aircraft in successive increments and using government reference architectures for hardware and software to allow rapid addition of new features. The aircraft also needs to be designed for quickly scalable production.

A key goal for the MMA is higher levels of automation compared to the Reaper. Niemi expressed a desire for a common control interface that is "more like mouse clicks and keyboard as opposed to stick and throttle," enabling a single operator to control multiple drones simultaneously. He stressed that initial MMA versions would use proven technology, not new systems, to control costs and meet aggressive fielding timelines.

The push comes as the MQ-9A has ceased production, and the upgraded MQ-9B SkyGuardian, while in production, cannot be acquired in large numbers immediately due to budget and other constraints. Niemi dismissed the idea of quickly buying 100 MQ-9Bs, calling it a misconception.